- The Cardinals are -190 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-190) on Saturday, April 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 8-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 7-7 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | +155 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -190 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+10.55 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jordan Walker has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Steven Matz | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 96% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+3.65 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.60 Units / 111% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 79% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -11.92% ROI).
- 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 34.38% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -16.34% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 10.32% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -6.21% ROI).
- 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -23.97% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -45.39% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 34.5% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras has walked 5 of 26 right-handed batters (19%) this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
The last hit on a Roansy Contreras curveball was August 22nd, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 23 in ABs ending on his curveball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Roansy Contreras has allowed a slugging percentage of just .095 (2 Total Bases / 21 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 97th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has located his pitches away 67% of the time (707/1,050) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .487 (19-for-39) against Steven Matz this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .404 (19-for-47) against Steven Matz this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .256 — third Percentile.
Steven Matz has allowed a BABIP of .548 against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .309 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .444 (12-for-27) against Steven Matz’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 16-39 (.291) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Pirates are just 23-90 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are 18-4 (.818) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 24-33 (.421) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 53-10 (.841) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have put just 28% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .466 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .804 (2,709 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Cardinals are batting .309 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 635 of 6,768 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 8 of 123 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 14,746 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Left Forearm, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Groin, D15
- Paul DeJong (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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