- The Cardinals (34-27) are -190 favorites vs the Pirates (24-34)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (2-5), 5.25 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (0-0), 2.25 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-190) on Monday, June 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 24-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 33-28 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | O 9.5 -120 | +155 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +100 | U 9.5 +100 | -190 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Monday‘s matchup with 77.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+11.25 Units / 94% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 69% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games at home (+6.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+4.45 Units / 89% ROI)
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 333 | 0.5 -600 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 160 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 190 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 165 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 150 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 185 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 120 | 0.5 -165 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -115 |
| Thompson | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 away games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 away games (+6.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+5.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 away games (+5.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+5.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-32 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -14.15% ROI).
- 24-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 22-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.65 Units / -18.42% ROI
- 31-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 10.21% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-28 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 4.78% ROI).
- 34-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 2.89% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.95 Units / -1.41% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -7.36% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .425 (127-for-299) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .383 (689 PA’s) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of just 60% (280/466) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (384/694) since the start of last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fifth Percentile.
Zachary Thompson: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Thompson has limited playing time.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 70-18 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 13-17 (.433) at home this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Pirates are just 42-97 (.302) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are 14-2 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are 27-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Cardinals are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Cardinals are 46-1 (.979) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cardinals are 20-4 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .303 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Pirates hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 395 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Cardinals are batting just .155 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Cardinals hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 467 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .454 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 185 of 1,908 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 244 of 2,424 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 210 of 2,217 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 54 of 543 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 182 of 1,962 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
- Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Richard Hembree (Pirates): Right Calf, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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