Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 01, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cardinals (91-66) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (59-98)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz (0-1), 1.17 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (8-6), 3.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-225) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 59-98 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 86-71 ATS.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -120O 6.5 +100+185
Cardinals -1.5 +100U 6.5 -120-225

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+14.15 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.45 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +1150 0.5
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +1050 0.5
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000

Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Andrew Knizner 0.5 -115 0.5 -125
Brendan Donovan 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Corey Dickerson 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Ortiz 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 93 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 76 away games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 63 games at home (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+15.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+9.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 79-78 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -3.05% ROI).

  • 59-98 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.37% ROI
  • 71-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -7.58% ROI
  • 77-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.46% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 86-71 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 4.9% ROI).

  • 91-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 3.71% ROI
  • 73-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -8.25% ROI
  • 79-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.52% ROI

Luis Ortiz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.0 innings pitched — Jonathan Loaisiga has the longest active streak at 26.2.

Luis Ortiz has not allowed a home run in any of the last 15.1 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 73.1.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (3/15) against Luis Ortiz against right-handed batters — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 97th Percentile.

Luis Ortiz has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to September 13rd — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 14.

Jordan Montgomery: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jordan Montgomery has attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timesthis season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (88/260) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 26% (133/505) against Jordan Montgomery this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has located his breaking pitches down 77% of the time (919/1,193) since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Pirates are just 2-78 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 94-25 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 57-132 (.302) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

The Pirates are just 19-84 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cardinals are 33-3 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 67-3 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Cardinals are 52-27 (.658) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .447 (6,175 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .306 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Cardinals hitters have 259 extra-base hits out of 596 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .468 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .805 (2,590 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,169 of 12,163 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.71 runs per game (266/156) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,812 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.