- The Cardinals (91-66) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (59-98)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz (0-1), 1.17 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (8-6), 3.49 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-225) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 59-98 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 86-71 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | O 6.5 +100 | +185 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +100 | U 6.5 -120 | -225 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+14.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.45 Units / 57% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -125 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 93 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 76 away games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 63 games at home (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+15.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+9.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 79-78 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -3.05% ROI).
- 59-98 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -9.37% ROI
- 71-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -7.58% ROI
- 77-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.46% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 86-71 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 4.9% ROI).
- 91-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 3.71% ROI
- 73-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -8.25% ROI
- 79-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.52% ROI
Luis Ortiz: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.0 innings pitched — Jonathan Loaisiga has the longest active streak at 26.2.
Luis Ortiz has not allowed a home run in any of the last 15.1 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 73.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (3/15) against Luis Ortiz against right-handed batters — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to September 13rd — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 14.
Jordan Montgomery: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Montgomery has attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timesthis season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (88/260) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 26% (133/505) against Jordan Montgomery this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has located his breaking pitches down 77% of the time (919/1,193) since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 2-78 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 94-25 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 57-132 (.302) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Pirates are just 19-84 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are 33-3 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 67-3 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Cardinals are 52-27 (.658) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .447 (6,175 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .306 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 259 extra-base hits out of 596 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .468 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .805 (2,590 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,169 of 12,163 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates have allowed 1.71 runs per game (266/156) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,812 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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