Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 02, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cardinals (92-66) are -190 favorites vs the Pirates (59-99)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (5-5), 3.71 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (11-11), 3.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-190) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 59-99 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 87-71 ATS.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -140O 7 -105+155
Cardinals -1.5 +115U 7 -115-190

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 66.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.45 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+13.05 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.25 Units / 50% ROI)

Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Brendan Donovan 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Corey Dickerson 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Nolan Arenado 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Nolan Arenado 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Wainwright 4.5 +110 4.5 -160
Roansy Contreras 4.5 +115 4.5 -160
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 46 away games (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 94 games (+7.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 77 away games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 64 games at home (+16.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games at home (+16.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games at home (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+8.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+6.60 Units / 8% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 79-79 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -3.62% ROI).

  • 59-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -9.92% ROI
  • 72-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.1 Units / -6.95% ROI
  • 77-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -1.03% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 87-71 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 5.38% ROI).

  • 92-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.4 Units / 4.11% ROI
  • 74-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -7.62% ROI
  • 79-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -1.09% ROI

Roansy Contreras has walked 15 of 106 batters (14%) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (13/90) against Roansy Contreras on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has located his pitches away 58% of the time (233/401) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (11/65) against Roansy Contreras with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.

Adam Wainwright: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (748/1,281) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (222/1,327) against Adam Wainwright this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (2,450/4,371) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has averaged 88.5 MPH on fastballs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Pirates are just 94-25 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 57-133 (.300) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 19-85 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 26-53 (.329) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 77-23 (.770) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Cardinals are 9-54 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Cardinals are 68-3 (.958) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Pirates are batting just .139 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,541 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 598 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .806 (2,598 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Cardinals hitters have 287 extra-base hits out of 670 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,177 of 12,206 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.71 runs per game (269/157) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,426 of 14,433 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 150 double plays in 1,173 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
  • Zachary Collins (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • William Crowe (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.