- The Cardinals are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-145) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 63-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 64-72 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 9.5 -120 | +120 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +135 | U 9.5 +100 | -145 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alfonso Rivas has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Endy Rodriguez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+7.60 Units / 84% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+7.25 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+16.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+11.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+9.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Thompson | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 108 games (+11.74 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 39 games (+3.39 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.72 Units / 12% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 66 games (+2.55 Units / 3% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 69-66 against the Run Line (-13.3 Units / -7.4% ROI).
- 63-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 4.03% ROI
- 72-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.5 Units / 6.44% ROI
- 57-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.65 Units / -14.69% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 64-72 against the Run Line (-13.45 Units / -7.78% ROI).
- 58-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -38 Units / -21.58% ROI
- 63-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -6.29% ROI
- 66-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -1.84% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has walked 41 of 242 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (362/661) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has allowed an OBP of just .115 (26 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .307 — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (372/639) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .455 (30-for-66) against Zack Thompson in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .331 — first Percentile.
Zack Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of .621 (18 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on fastballs away this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .350 — fourth Percentile.
Zack Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of .621 (18 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on fastballs away this season — tied for 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .339 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .389 (14-for-36) against Zack Thompson when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 43-146 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Pirates are just 51-72 (.415) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Pirates are just 125-172 (.421) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are just 45-6 (.882) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Cardinals are just 41-23 (.641) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .376 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 42% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals hitters have 363 extra-base hits out of 887 total hits (41%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .260 (5,943 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Cardinals have a winning percentage of just 43% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,075 of 11,467 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 28% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals): Back, D15
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Joshua Palacios (Pirates): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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