Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cardinals (90-66) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (59-97)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo (4-2), 3.13 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty (1-1), 4.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-200) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 59-97 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 86-70 ATS.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -120O 7 +100+170
Cardinals -1.5 +100U 7 -120-200

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.45 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 games at home (+16.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+10.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Cardinals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +500 0.5 -1200
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +1300 0.5
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +1150 0.5
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +1050 0.5
Lars Nootbaar 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Cardinals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Brendan Donovan 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Corey Dickerson 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Lars Nootbaar 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Cardinals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Pujols 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Brendan Donovan 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Lars Nootbaar 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Cardinals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jack Flaherty 5.5 -110 5.5 -125
Johan Oviedo 3.5 -105 3.5 -135
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 44 away games (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 away games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 47 away games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+16.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 62 games at home (+14.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 43% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -3.58% ROI).

  • 59-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.35 Units / -8.81% ROI
  • 71-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.9 Units / -6.93% ROI
  • 76-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -1.05% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 86-70 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 5.44% ROI).

  • 90-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 3.3% ROI
  • 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -7.61% ROI
  • 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -1.11% ROI

Johan Oviedo has walked 14 of 89 batters (16%) this month (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .093 (4-for-43) against Johan Oviedo this month (5 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .093 (4 Total Bases / 43 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (5 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .408 — 100th Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to September 2nd — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 14.

Jack Flaherty: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 59% (217/368) this month (4 games) — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .348 (46 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.

Jack Flaherty has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (49/97) this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .385 (96 PA’s) this month (4 games) — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .302 — sixth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Pirates are just 2-77 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 26-51 (.338) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Pirates are just 94-25 (.790) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 57-131 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cardinals are 66-3 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Cardinals are 49-9 (.845) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Cardinals are 15-9 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 75-23 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,512 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Pirates are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .448 (6,153 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.

Cardinals hitters have 259 extra-base hits out of 596 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 286 extra-base hits out of 668 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .811 (1,345 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,166 of 12,130 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.72 runs per game (266/155) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Pirates pitchers have walked 297 of 3,280 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,803 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Cardinals have won 57% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.