Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 25, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (38-57) are -145 favorites vs the Pirates (40-56)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-8), 4.02 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-1), 3.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Monday, July 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 40-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-46 ATS.

Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -165O 8 -105+120
Cubs -1.5 +140U 8 -115-145

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s matchup with 62.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 42 games (+16.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.30 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+13.50 Units / 96% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 51% ROI)

Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Frank Schwindel 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ian Happ 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Christopher Morel 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Frank Schwindel 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Ian Happ 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Christopher Morel 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Frank Schwindel 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Ian Happ 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -120 3.5 -115
JT Brubaker 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 87 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 55 games (+3.05 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 94 games (+11.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 49-47 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -3.62% ROI).

  • 40-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.35% ROI
  • 40-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -13.61% ROI
  • 50-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 5.53% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (-4.65 Units / -3.78% ROI).

  • 38-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.9 Units / -14.2% ROI
  • 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -7.12% ROI
  • 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.05% ROI

JT Brubaker has not allowed a home run in any of the last 33.0 innings he’s appeared — Zach Pop has the longest active streak at 53.2.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (283/838) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (522/993) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (238/456) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (4 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 24% (13 SO in 55 PAs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (4 Total Bases / 24 ABs) vs left-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .356 — 96th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has struck out just 4% (1/27) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Pirates are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are just 18-32 (.360) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.

The Cubs are just 16-96 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Cubs are just 38-44 (.463) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Cubs are 115-5 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .458 (5,012 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,972 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 299 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .642.

Cubs hitters have 647 strikeouts in 2,598 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 3 of 113 batters (3%) over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 271 of 2,762 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 212 of 2,246 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have struck out just 10% of left-handed batters they faced over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Cubs have won just 16% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 920 of 9,867 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.