Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 26, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (39-57) are -185 favorites vs the Pirates (40-57)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-5), 6.52 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-4), 3.43 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-185) on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 40-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-47 ATS.

Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -135O 8 -105+150
Cubs -1.5 +110U 8 -115-185

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.20 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 43 games (+17.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+17.65 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Christopher Morel 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Ian Happ 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Christopher Morel 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Ian Happ 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Christopher Morel 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Ian Happ 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +115 0.5 -160

Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Keegan Thompson 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
Bryse Wilson 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 45 away games (+4.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.00 Units / 110% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -2.76% ROI).

  • 40-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.64% ROI
  • 40-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.45 Units / -14.55% ROI
  • 51-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 6.41% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 49-47 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -4.56% ROI).

  • 39-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.9 Units / -13.07% ROI
  • 43-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -8.13% ROI
  • 47-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.09% ROI

Bryse Wilson has allowed a BABIP of .423 vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .274 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .322 (66-for-205) against Bryse Wilson this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .242 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .459 (17-for-37) against Bryse Wilson on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .278 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .408 (20-for-49) against Bryse Wilson on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .261 — third Percentile.

Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 68% (13/19) against Keegan Thompson — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — second Percentile.

Keegan Thompson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.1 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 53.1.

Keegan Thompson has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to June 28th — the longest active streak is 8.

Keegan Thompson has walked 35 of 272 left-handed batters (13%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Pirates are just 7-9 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 35-5 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Cubs are 115-5 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Cubs are just 19-32 (.373) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Cubs are just 16-96 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,972 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .282 (773 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,529 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

The Cubs have won just 48% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .642.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .355 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.

Pirates pitchers have walked 212 of 2,254 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 344 of 3,744 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 271 of 2,770 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.78 (73.0 IP) at home this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Cubs pitchers have walked 922 of 9,903 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
  • Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.