- The Cubs (39-57) are -185 favorites vs the Pirates (40-57)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-5), 6.52 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-4), 3.43 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-185) on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 40-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-47 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 43 games (+17.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+17.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keegan Thompson | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Bryse Wilson | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 45 away games (+4.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.00 Units / 110% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -2.76% ROI).
- 40-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.45 Units / -14.55% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 6.41% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 49-47 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -4.56% ROI).
- 39-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.9 Units / -13.07% ROI
- 43-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -8.13% ROI
- 47-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.09% ROI
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed a BABIP of .423 vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .274 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .322 (66-for-205) against Bryse Wilson this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .242 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .459 (17-for-37) against Bryse Wilson on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .278 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .408 (20-for-49) against Bryse Wilson on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .261 — third Percentile.
Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 68% (13/19) against Keegan Thompson — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — second Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.1 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 53.1.
Keegan Thompson has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to June 28th — the longest active streak is 8.
Keegan Thompson has walked 35 of 272 left-handed batters (13%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 83-21 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Pirates are just 7-9 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 35-5 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Cubs are 115-5 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Cubs are just 19-32 (.373) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Cubs are just 16-96 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,972 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .282 (773 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,529 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 48% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .642.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .355 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 212 of 2,254 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 344 of 3,744 batters (9%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 271 of 2,770 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.78 (73.0 IP) at home this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 922 of 9,903 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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