- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-125) on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 34-31 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+8.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+7.95 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 44 games (+23.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+15.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+15.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+9.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+9.55 Units / 28% ROI)
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+7.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 away games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 away games (+4.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+6.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+3.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-31 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -4.12% ROI).
- 34-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 8.5% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -4.11% ROI
- 30-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -3.56% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 34-31 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.41% ROI).
- 28-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -12.92% ROI
- 31-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -7.58% ROI
- 33-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -1.26% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (131/265) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has thrown low pitches 74% of the time (111/150) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .393 (11-for-28) against Luis Ortiz — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .393 (11-for-28) against Luis Ortiz over the last 14 days (2 games) — 6th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .239 — sixth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon walked 4 of 24 batters (17%) — tied for 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 509 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has not allowed a walk in his last 59 PAs against a RHH dating back to May 15th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 89.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (42/135) against Jameson Taillon this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 4-107 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Pirates are just 9-100 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Pirates are 32-1 (.970) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Pirates are just 33-112 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 7-11 (.389) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Cubs are just 16-27 (.372) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,587 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .232 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .272 over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 808 of 8,675 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Pirates pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (124.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Pirates pitchers have walked 54 of 567 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 39 of 574 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH (1,611 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Edwin RÃos (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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