- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Osvaldo Bido
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Wednesday, June 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 35-31 ATS.
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -120 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | U 9 +100 | -145 |
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 45 games (+21.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+16.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+14.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+10.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Cubs vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Cubs vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 37 games (+14.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 games (+6.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 away games (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-32 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -6.03% ROI).
- 34-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 7.05% ROI
- 31-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.65% ROI
- 30-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -5.05% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 35-31 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 1.4% ROI).
- 29-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -11.41% ROI
- 32-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -6.1% ROI
- 33-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -2.77% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 54% of the time (247/455) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (371/805) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 62% of the time (201/325) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (572/1,130) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 32-1 (.970) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Pirates are just 9-101 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Pirates are just 33-113 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 2-26 (.071) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Cubs are just 8-11 (.421) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Cubs are just 17-27 (.386) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .225 on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .374 against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.14 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .274 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .388 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 55 of 575 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 297 of 3,392 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 812 of 8,716 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 39 of 583 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Cubs vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Edwin RÃos (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Ian Happ (Cubs): Calf, Day-to-Day
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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