• The Cubs are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
• Pirates vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Pirates / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-200) on September 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm in Chicago, IL.

This season, the Pirates are 74-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 70-75 ATS.

Pirates vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Bladimir Dotel 1-4, 4.41 ERA
• Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 9-10, 3.92 ERA

Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nick Gonzales has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 49% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Michael Conforto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+12.90 Units / 215% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Walks Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 44% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Cubs Best Bets Today:

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.05 Units / 84% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 69-74 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -5.87% ROI).

• 74-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -5.48% ROI
• 75-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 1.51% ROI
• 66-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.15 Units / -10.01% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 70-75 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -1.22% ROI).

• 81-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -1.36% ROI
• 81-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.5 Units / 7.72% ROI
• 63-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.45 Units / -15.74% ROI

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 23-98 (.190) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 20-122 (.141) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 13-78 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are 18-28 (.391) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB.

The Cubs are 44-6 (.880) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Cubs are 6-59 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

The Cubs are 30-34 (.469) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .339 (3,925 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,774 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .755 (3,925 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have 116 extra-base hits out of 463 total hits (just 25%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends

Cubs hitters have an OPS of .806 (1,562 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Cubs hitters are slugging .500 on breaking pitches against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of .264 (3,069 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of .350 (1,562 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have won just 23% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Cubs pitchers have picked-off 21 runners from first base this season — most in MLB.

Cubs pitchers have won 35% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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