- The Diamondbacks (50-60) are -165 favorites vs the Pirates (45-66)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-10), 4.48 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (10-5), 2.85 ERA
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-165) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 45-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 63-47 ATS.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -115 | +140 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -165 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s matchup with 59.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.55 Units / 97% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 71 games (+24.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 51 of his last 74 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 63 games (+13.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 48 of his last 71 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.65 Units / 78% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 away games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 52 away games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 99 games (+16.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+14.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 60 games at home (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 58-53 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -1.6% ROI).
- 45-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.26% ROI
- 48-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -10.76% ROI
- 56-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.56% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 63-47 against the Run Line (+13.4 Units / 9.49% ROI).
- 50-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.18% ROI
- 50-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -8.47% ROI
- 55-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.74% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 74 of JT Brubaker’s 507 elevated fastballs out of the zone (15%) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (280/527) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (564/1,064) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (30/80) against JT Brubaker when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .241 (13-for-54) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% (37/166) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 20% (73/366) against Merrill Kelly this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 15th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 85-22 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 2-53 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Pirates are just 20-37 (.351) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Pirates are just 5-23 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 94-27 (.777) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 103-18 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 48-113 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,354 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,099 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Pirates are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .222 (5,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .193 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 17 strikeouts in 177 PA’s (10%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .208 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 217 of 2,369 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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