Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 11, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Diamondbacks (50-60) are -165 favorites vs the Pirates (45-66)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-10), 4.48 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (10-5), 2.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-165) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 45-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 63-47 ATS.

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -150O 7.5 -115+140
Diamondbacks -1.5 +125U 7.5 -105-165

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s matchup with 59.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.55 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Josh VanMeter has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 39 of his last 71 games (+24.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 51 of his last 74 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 63 games (+13.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 48 of his last 71 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+11.65 Units / 78% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Christian Walker 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Josh Rojas 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Christian Walker 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Josh Rojas 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Christian Walker 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Josh Rojas 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Merrill Kelly 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 away games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 52 away games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 99 games (+16.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+14.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 60 games at home (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 58-53 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -1.6% ROI).

  • 45-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.26% ROI
  • 48-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -10.76% ROI
  • 56-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.56% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 63-47 against the Run Line (+13.4 Units / 9.49% ROI).

  • 50-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.18% ROI
  • 50-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -8.47% ROI
  • 55-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -0.74% ROI

Hitters have chased just 74 of JT Brubaker’s 507 elevated fastballs out of the zone (15%) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (280/527) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (564/1,064) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (30/80) against JT Brubaker when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .241 (13-for-54) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 100th Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% (37/166) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 16th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 20% (73/366) against Merrill Kelly this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 15th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Pirates are just 85-22 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 2-53 (.036) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Pirates are just 20-37 (.351) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Pirates are just 5-23 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Diamondbacks are just 94-27 (.777) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 103-18 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 48-113 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,354 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,099 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

The Pirates are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .222 (5,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .193 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Diamondbacks hitters have just 17 strikeouts in 177 PA’s (10%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .208 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 217 of 2,369 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Caleb Smith (Diamondbacks): Hand, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.