- The Diamondbacks are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-200) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 40-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 53-35 ATS.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -110 | +165 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -110 | -200 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 78.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.75 Units / 109% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 79% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+14.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+10.30 Units / 64% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Zac Gallen | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+15.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 45 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 85 games (+17.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 87 games (+14.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+11.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 80 games (+8.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 41-46 against the Run Line (-16.55 Units / -14.33% ROI).
- 40-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -1.49% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.31% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -8.26% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 53-35 against the Run Line (+16.1 Units / 14.43% ROI).
- 50-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.35 Units / 12.16% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.85 Units / -7.99% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
15 of Rich Hill’s 46 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (547/1,137) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (739/1,601) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (127/391) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 93rd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .480 (24-for-50) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — fifth Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 57% when ahead in the count (10th lowest)– 15th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (ninth highest among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (73/184) against Zac Gallen with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (56/164) against Zac Gallen this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 16th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 6-122 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Pirates are just 97-129 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 16-26 (.381) after a road win since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Pirates are just 18-26 (.409) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .481.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 98-17 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 108-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are 12-3 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Diamondbacks are 38-5 (.884) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .232 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,853 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,305) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
The Diamondbacks are 52-28 (.650) against the run line (23.8% ROI) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .491 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 892 of 9,564 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 57% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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