- The Diamondbacks are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-160) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 40-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 54-36 ATS.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 9 +100 | +135 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -120 | -160 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+10.30 Units / 64% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Dominic Fletcher has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ryne Nelson has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 47 games (+5.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 87 games (+17.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 89 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 42-47 against the Run Line (-16.65 Units / -14.06% ROI).
- 40-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.2% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -8.18% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 54-36 against the Run Line (+16.1 Units / 14.16% ROI).
- 52-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.35 Units / 13.54% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.15% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 11% (4/37) against Carmen Mlodzinski — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 11% (4/37) against Carmen Mlodzinski over the last 14 days (5 games) — 3rd lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Opponents have not chased any pitches out of the zone against Carmen Mlodzinski — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 16% (11/68) against Carmen Mlodzinski over the last 30 days (9 games) — tied for 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (298/469) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his pitches away 68% of the time (541/791) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 21% (164/791) against Zach Davies on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (298/469) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are just 6-123 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Pirates are just 43-58 (.426) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Pirates are just 34-128 (.210) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-17 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are 12-3 (.800) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Diamondbacks are just 92-23 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,872 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Pirates are batting just .221 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,375) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
The Diamondbacks are 58-33 (.637) against the run line (22.7% ROI) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 71 of 783 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 904 of 9,643 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have won 57% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Elbow, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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