- The Dodgers are -250 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz
- Dodgers starting pitcher: George Sheehan
- Watch the game on SportsNet LA
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+190) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Pirates vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 39-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 43-41 ATS.
Pirates vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +100 | O 9.5 -115 | +190 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 -120 | U 9.5 -105 | -250 |
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 80.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 51% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 away games (+8.60 Units / 95% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 away games (+8.45 Units / 87% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+14.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 47 games (+10.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Dodgers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Dodgers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Dodgers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Dodgers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Emmet Sheehan | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Luis Ortiz | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 56 games (+16.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 38 away games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+9.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 58 games (+7.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+4.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 40-44 against the Run Line (-15.6 Units / -13.89% ROI).
- 39-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -1.8% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -0.7% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -7.26% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 3.82% ROI).
- 47-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -6.91% ROI
- 47-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.95 Units / 12.88% ROI
- 32-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.9 Units / -20.5% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .435 (20-for-46) against Luis Ortiz over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (16/99) against Luis Ortiz on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (24/44) against Luis Ortiz — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 88th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 5 of 55 batters (9%) — tied for 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Emmet Sheehan has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.0 innings pitched — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 20.0.
Opponents are hitting just .172 (10-for-58) against Emmet Sheehan over the last 30 days (3 games) — 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 93rd Percentile.
Emmet Sheehan has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (16 Total Bases / 58 ABs) over the last 30 days (3 games) — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 94th Percentile.
Emmet Sheehan has allowed an OPS of just .498 (63 PA’s) over the last 30 days (3 games) — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .736 — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 36-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Pirates are just 57-87 (.396) after a loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Pirates are 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Dodgers are 31-15 (.674) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Dodgers are 7-71 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Dodgers are 11-4 (.733) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Dodgers are 54-24 (.692) after a home win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .540.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Pirates hitters have 54 strikeouts in 154 PA’s (35%) against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (9,007 PA’s) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have 81 extra-base hits out of 164 total hits (49%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .765 (2,910 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 121 double plays in 1,780 opportunities (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Dodgers hitters have drawn 125 walks in 885 PA’s (14%) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 881 of 9,452 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Dodgers have won 52% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 652 of 9,024 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Dodgers have won 46% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Dodgers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Noah Syndergaard (Dodgers): Finger, D15
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Taylor (Dodgers): Knee, D10
- Shelby Miller (Dodgers): Neck, D15
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Trayce Thompson (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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