- The Dodgers are -225 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Pirates vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 40-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 44-42 ATS.
Pirates vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -105 | +185 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -115 | -225 |
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 79.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Henry Davis has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 games (+9.75 Units / 139% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Dodgers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Dodgers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Dodgers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Dodgers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -125 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+14.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+3.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 82 games (+11.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 60 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 41-45 against the Run Line (-15.4 Units / -13.47% ROI).
- 40-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 43-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 1.42% ROI
- 38-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -9.42% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 44-42 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 3.33% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -7.85% ROI
- 49-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.95 Units / 14.69% ROI
- 32-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.1 Units / -22.35% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has allowed a slugging percentage of .533 (24 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — eighth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (91/452) against Johan Oviedo this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has located his fastball up for a strike just 47% (123/260) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has struck out just 4% (1/27) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 72% (1,055/1,460) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (221/666) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Julio Urias has allowed an OBP of just .194 (263 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .290 — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has not walked any of the 69 batters that he has faced versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Pirates are 20-3 (.870) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Pirates are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 34-126 (.212) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Pirates are just 102-146 (.411) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Dodgers are 26-12 (.684) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Dodgers are 59-30 (.663) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Dodgers are 31-15 (.674) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Dodgers are 12-4 (.750) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .370 against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Pirates hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have 82 extra-base hits out of 165 total hits (50%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .763 (2,930 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Dodgers hitters have drawn 98 walks in 858 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .781 (6,997 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 890 of 9,531 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have walked 664 of 9,111 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Dodgers have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Dodgers have won 46% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Dodgers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Noah Syndergaard (Dodgers): Finger, D15
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Taylor (Dodgers): Knee, D10
- Shelby Miller (Dodgers): Neck, D15
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Trayce Thompson (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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