• The Pirates are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
• Pirates vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Pirates / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on July 18, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Pirates are against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are ATS.

Pirates vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft 9-3, 3.48 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 8-4, 3.59 ERA

Pirates vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Henry Davis has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+13.40 Units / 134% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+12.50 Units / 312% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.60 Units / 77% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jake Mangum has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 53% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+21.00 Units / 233% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.40 Units / 70% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 50 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 74% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 64% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Guardians vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Pirates are just 22-27 (.449) after a win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.

The Pirates are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Pirates are 38-9 (.809) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Pirates are 24-13 (.649) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Guardians (eighth runs allowed).

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Guardians are 17-4 (.810) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Guardians are 21-16 (.568) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Pirates (23rd in runs allowed).

The Guardians are 17-4 (.810) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Guardians are 21-16 (.568) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2025 season Today, they face Pirates (23rd in runs allowed).

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .353 (2,765 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .789 (2,765 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .357 (1,987 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .263 this season — best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .263 (416 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .192 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .503 (253 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.45 (465.0 IP) at home this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Batters facing the Pirates pitchers put just 35% of their swings in play this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have allowed 1.75 runs per game (170/97) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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