• The Pirates are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
• Pirates vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• Pirates / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on July 19, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Pirates are 51-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 48-50 ATS.

Pirates vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 8-8, 3.58 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 3-9, 3.94 ERA

Pirates vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+20.00 Units / 222% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 71% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Chase DeLauter has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+15.60 Units / 173% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.45 Units / 49% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 69% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 61% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 50-47 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 1.51% ROI).

• 51-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.6 Units / -4.5% ROI
• 57-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +14.25 Units / 13.07% ROI
• 39-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.45 Units / -21.54% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 48-50 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -3.4% ROI).

• 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 2.91% ROI
• 46-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -10.95% ROI
• 53-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 1.78% ROI

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Pirates are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Pirates are 24-13 (.649) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Guardians (eighth runs allowed).

The Pirates are 39-9 (.812) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Pirates are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Guardians are 21-16 (.568) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Pirates (23rd in runs allowed).

The Guardians are 37-3 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .864.

The Guardians are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .784.

The Guardians are 27-20 (.574) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .351 (2,815 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .812 (1,987 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates have scored in at least three different innings in 60% of their games this season — highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .788 (2,815 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .191 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .369 this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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