- The Mariners are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+160) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-190) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Pirates are 38-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 37-49 ATS.
Pirates vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-3, 3.62 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo 7-4, 2.93 ERA
Pirates vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 7 -105 | +160 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -115 | -190 |
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 62.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+21.50 Units / 215% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.20 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+12.70 Units / 317% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.50 Units / 73% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+14.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games at home (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 44-43 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -4.84% ROI).
- 38-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 36-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.7 Units / -18.25% ROI
- 49-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 10.14% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 37-49 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -12.32% ROI).
- 45-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -6.55% ROI
- 47-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.65 Units / 8.04% ROI
- 36-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.87 Units / -16.47% ROI
Mariners vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Mariners vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mariners vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Bryan Woo (SEA) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (170/353) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (170/353) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown elevated sliders34% of the time (80/239) this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (575/1,314) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .089 (10-for-112) against Bryan Woo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (14 Total Bases / 112 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .224 (196 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 98th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has walked 4% of batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 10-67 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 8-53 (.131) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates are just 15-47 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Pirates are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are 4-35 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Mariners are 108-2 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mariners are 90-12 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Mariners were 58-5 (.921) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .319 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .602 (1,520 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Pirates have won just 50% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 38% of their PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Mariners hitters are slugging .730 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .352 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Mariners are batting just .226 at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Pirates pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .267 (2,230 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
More MLB Reading:
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