- The Mariners are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Mariners TV Channel: FS1 | RTNW | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-175) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Pirates are 38-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 38-49 ATS.
Pirates vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 1-2, 4.20 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 7.05 ERA
Pirates vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 7 +105 | +145 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -125 | -175 |
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 61.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.35 Units / 93% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dominic Canzone has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+11.95 Units / 120% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+4.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
Mariners Best Bets Today:
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 44-44 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -4.84% ROI).
- 38-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 36-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.7 Units / -18.25% ROI
- 50-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 10.14% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 38-49 against the Run Line (-13.2 Units / -12.32% ROI).
- 46-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.5 Units / -6.55% ROI
- 47-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.65 Units / 8.04% ROI
- 37-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.87 Units / -16.47% ROI
Mariners vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Luke Raley (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.P. Crawford (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (33/101) against Michael Burrows this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Burrows has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (59/108) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Michael Burrows has thrown off-speed pitches 58% of the time (323/558) this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total NonFB; League Avg: 45% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (64/269) against Michael Burrows this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 28% — sixth Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 67% of the time (1,087/1,621) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 69% of the time (562/810) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 66% of the time (337/513) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (1,589/2,337) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 12-30 (.286) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Pirates are just 15-48 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Pirates are just 10-67 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 1-17 (.056) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are 34-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 20-16 (.556) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Pirates (Ranks fifth runs allowed) today.
The Mariners are 4-35 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Mariners are 91-12 (.883) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .316 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Pirates are batting just .206 when leading off an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .336 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 38% of their PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,819 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .222 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Mariners hitters are slugging .720 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have allowed 2.75 runs per game (33/12) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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