- The Pirates are -110 favorites vs the Mariners
- Pirates vs Mariners Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Pirates / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-115) on Sunday, July 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Pirates are 38-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 38-50 ATS.
Pirates vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 4-7, 2.04 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 2-4, 4.86 ERA
Pirates vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +170 | O 6 -105 | -105 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | U 6 -115 | -115 |
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+13.50 Units / 225% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+16.00 Units / 267% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 39% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 89 games (+15.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+9.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 83 games (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games at home (+1.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 45-44 against the Run Line (-6 Units / -5.14% ROI).
- 38-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -9.5% ROI
- 36-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.1 Units / -20.22% ROI
- 51-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.8 Units / 11.97% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 38-50 against the Run Line (-12.9 Units / -11.82% ROI).
- 47-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -4.67% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 5.38% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.87 Units / -14.1% ROI
Mariners vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mariners vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Spencer Horwitz (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Mariners vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby (SEA) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .216 (185 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (72-for-396) against Paul Skenes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .121 (7-for-58) against Paul Skenes’ elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — 98th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .523 (429 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .688 — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 2% of right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has induced opposing hitters to ground into 5 double plays in 22 opportunities (23%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 4% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
George Kirby had a strike rate of 78% (389/500) when he’s behind in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 70% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 1-17 (.056) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Pirates are just 10-67 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 12-31 (.279) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are 4-35 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Mariners are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 91-12 (.883) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 30-3 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .311 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 38% of their PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,585 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .590 (1,585 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,819 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mariners are batting just .222 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have allowed 2.58 runs per game (31/12) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .266 (2,248 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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