- The Mariners are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-155) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Pirates vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 25-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 25-25 ATS.
Pirates vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | O 7 -110 | +130 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +140 | U 7 -110 | -155 |
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 72.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.25 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 42 games (+17.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 42 games (+17.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Mariners vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Mariners vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Mariners vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Mitch Keller | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+5.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+4.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+4.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 26-23 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.34% ROI).
- 25-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 7.66% ROI
- 22-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -7.87% ROI
- 24-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.37% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 25-25 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.34% ROI).
- 26-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -5.07% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -10.62% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 1.94% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 45% (24 SO in 53 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has struck out 50% (15/30) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 44% (21 SO in 48 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 70% (297/425) when ahead in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has allowed three-ball counts to 9% of batters they faced (21/230 PA’s) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 73% (310/427) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 5 of 230 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has allowed three-ball counts to 8% of batters they faced (9/115 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Pirates are just 19-45 (.297) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Pirates are just 75-47 (.615) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Pirates are just 35-51 (.407) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are just 0-7 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Mariners are just 2-10 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Mariners are 21-3 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Mariners are 30-28 (.517) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have 591 strikeouts in 2,371 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .220 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .243 (214 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Mariners are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.08 (207.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Pirates pitchers have walked 751 of 8,074 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 282 of 3,250 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 123 of 1,839 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 22 of 456 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 574 of 7,869 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Leg, Day-to-Day
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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