- The Mariners are -250 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-250) on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Pirates vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 26-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 25-26 ATS.
Pirates vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -110 | O 7.5 -110 | +200 |
| Mariners | -1.5 -110 | U 7.5 -110 | -250 |
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 86.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+9.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 43 games (+16.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+15.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Mariners vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Mariners vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
Mariners vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -600 |
Mariners vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vincent Velasquez | 5.5 +150 | 5.5 -200 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 away games (+7.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+3.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+3.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games (+3.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 27-23 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.23% ROI).
- 26-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 10% ROI
- 23-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -5.89% ROI
- 24-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -1.46% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 25-26 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.87% ROI).
- 26-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -7.05% ROI
- 24-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -8.65% ROI
- 26-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.09% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 47% (28/60) against Vince Velasquez on inside fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Vince Velasquez when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .157 (11-for-70) against Vince Velasquez’s curve and slider this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .174 (15-for-86) against Vince Velasquez’s non-fastballs this season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .232 — 90th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .216 (116 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 3 of 117 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .188 (21-for-112) against Luis Castillo this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 91st Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 43% (25 SO in 58 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Pirates are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .680.
The Pirates are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Pirates are just 4-101 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are just 0-8 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Mariners are 30-29 (.508) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Mariners are 32-23 (.582) after a road win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Mariners are 8-86 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (2,376 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .674 (2,376 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Pirates hitters have 592 strikeouts in 2,376 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .256 (223 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Mariners are batting just .220 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .210 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 754 of 8,112 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (216.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.58 (97.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 124 of 1,882 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 21 of 463 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Leg, Day-to-Day
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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