- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-135) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Pirates vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 26-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 26-26 ATS.
Pirates vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -105 | +110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Pirates vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 69.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 away games (+8.05 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+17.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+16.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+12.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Mariners vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mariners vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 away games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+4.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+4.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 27-24 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -1.51% ROI).
- 26-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 8.09% ROI
- 23-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 25-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.2 Units / 0.36% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 26-26 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.3% ROI).
- 27-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -5.58% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -10.29% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 1.86% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.2 innings pitched — Jaime Barria has the longest active streak at 16.1.
Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (8 SO in 72 PAs) over the last 30 days (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (23/46) of opposing batters over the last 30 days (3 games) — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has allowed a slugging percentage of .720 (36 Total Bases / 50 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .390 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 29% (133 SO in 456 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has allowed an OPS of 1.135 (53 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .692 — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 14% (133 SO in 975 PAs) since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Pirates are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Pirates are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Pirates are just 4-102 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Pirates are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mariners are just 0-8 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
The Mariners are 4-20 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Mariners are 8-86 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Mariners are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Pirates are batting just .223 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .176 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .221 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
Mariners hitters have 23 extra-base hits out of 44 total hits (52%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 755 of 8,148 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (224.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 127 of 1,915 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .352 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Leg, Day-to-Day
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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