• The Pirates are -118 favorites vs the Marlins
• Pirates vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-118) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-102) on August 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Pirates are 58-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 60-58 ATS.

Pirates vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 9-10, 3.99 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 5-9, 3.64 ERA

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+15.95 Units / 80% ROI)
• Jacob Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+14.70 Units / 163% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 35% ROI)
• Owen Caissie has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+11.70 Units / 117% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+0.60 Units / 3% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 57-60 against the Run Line (-7.4 Units / -4.91% ROI).

• 58-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.9 Units / -9.34% ROI
• 66-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.25 Units / 8.51% ROI
• 50-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.25 Units / -16.88% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 60-58 against the Run Line (-6.95 Units / -4.38% ROI).

• 60-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 1.15% ROI
• 58-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -6 Units / -4.57% ROI
• 58-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -4.29% ROI

Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.

The Pirates were just 7-43 (.140) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.

The Pirates were just 6-50 (.107) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .295 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .345 (3,302 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .772 (3,302 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .285 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .306 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The softest ball hit off of the Pirates pitchers this season was just 16.7 MPH — tied for 5th best in MLB

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.34 (543.2 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 3.63 runs per game (218/60) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 93 times this season — 5th most in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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