• The Marlins are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
• Pirates vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-120) on August 12, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Pirates are 58-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 61-58 ATS.

Pirates vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft 11-5, 4.05 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 5-7, 4.65 ERA

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jacob Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+13.70 Units / 137% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 68% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+11.00 Units / 110% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 57-61 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -5.54% ROI).

• 58-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -15 Units / -10.01% ROI
• 66-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.15 Units / 7.61% ROI
• 51-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.25 Units / -15.98% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 61-58 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -3.71% ROI).

• 61-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.85% ROI
• 58-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -5.36% ROI
• 59-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -3.49% ROI

Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 1-5 (.167) this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 1-5 (.167) since the 2025 season — tied for lowest in MLB.

The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Pirates were just 6-50 (.107) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The Marlins were 9-67 (.118) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .090.

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .351 (2,335 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .768 (3,333 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .344 (3,333 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .361 in non-two strike counts this season — best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .308 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have a winning percentage of 61% at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.51 (551.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .288 against Pirates pitchers with runners on base this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.29 (552.2 IP) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

The Marlins have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .232 against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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