• The Pirates are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
• Pirates vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Pirates / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on August 13, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Pirates are 58-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 62-58 ATS.

Pirates vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft 11-5, 4.05 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 3-5, 3.49 ERA

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 41% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 44% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 48% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+15.10 Units / 151% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.85 Units / 52% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+8.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+11.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 57-62 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -6.77% ROI).

• 58-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -10.61% ROI
• 67-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.15 Units / 8.3% ROI
• 51-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.35 Units / -16.67% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 62-58 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -2.63% ROI).

• 62-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 2.54% ROI
• 59-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -4.57% ROI
• 59-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -4.29% ROI

Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 1-6 (.143) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 1-6 (.143) this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 1-6 (.143) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 1-6 (.143) since the 2025 season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins were 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .291 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .351 (2,335 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .342 (3,367 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .310 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .258 (2,295 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting .248 on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Pirates pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.51 (551.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 120 home runs this season — tied for 5th fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 200 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .231 against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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