- The Marlins (41-44) are -150 favorites vs the Pirates (37-50)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Christopher Stratton (5-4), 5.14 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Daniel Castano (1-2), 3.60 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-150) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 37-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-42 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -110 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -150 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Castano | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 78 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 86 games (+6.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 46 games (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.90 Units / 6% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -5.58% ROI).
- 37-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 2.63% ROI
- 36-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -13.58% ROI
- 45-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.35 Units / 5.54% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-42 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.02% ROI).
- 41-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -5.45% ROI
- 41-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.71% ROI
- 40-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -5.13% ROI
Christopher Stratton: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .373 (22-for-59) against Chris Stratton this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — first Percentile.
Chris Stratton has allowed a slugging percentage of .405 (30 Total Bases / 74 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Chris Stratton has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (35 Total Bases / 59 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/8) against Chris Stratton this month (4 games) — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Daniel Castano: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Daniel Castano has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 21st — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 10.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (5/18) against Daniel Castano — 12th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 92nd Percentile.
Daniel Castano has struck out just 7% (2/31) of right-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (4/15) against Daniel Castano against right-handed batters — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 94th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 80-20 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Pirates are just 13-44 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Pirates are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are just 1-35 (.028) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .303 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters have 179 strikeouts in 646 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 267 of 2,679 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 69 of 764 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 924 of 9,509 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 208 of 2,163 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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