Pirates vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 12, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (41-44) are -150 favorites vs the Pirates (37-50)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Christopher Stratton (5-4), 5.14 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Daniel Castano (1-2), 3.60 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-150) on Tuesday, July 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 37-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-42 ATS.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -160O 8 -110+125
Marlins -1.5 +135U 8 -110-150

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Joey Wendle 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Joey Wendle 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brian Anderson 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Joey Wendle 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Daniel Castano 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 78 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 86 games (+6.60 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 46 games (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+10.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.90 Units / 6% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -5.58% ROI).

  • 37-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 2.63% ROI
  • 36-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -13.58% ROI
  • 45-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.35 Units / 5.54% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-42 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.02% ROI).

  • 41-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -5.45% ROI
  • 41-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.71% ROI
  • 40-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -5.13% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting .373 (22-for-59) against Chris Stratton this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — first Percentile.

Chris Stratton has allowed a slugging percentage of .405 (30 Total Bases / 74 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.

Chris Stratton has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (35 Total Bases / 59 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/8) against Chris Stratton this month (4 games) — tied for lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Daniel Castano: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Daniel Castano has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 21st — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 10.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 28% (5/18) against Daniel Castano — 12th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 92nd Percentile.

Daniel Castano has struck out just 7% (2/31) of right-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 27% (4/15) against Daniel Castano against right-handed batters — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 94th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 80-20 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Pirates are just 13-44 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Pirates are just 26-5 (.839) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins are 8-6 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Marlins are just 1-35 (.028) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .303 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Marlins hitters have 179 strikeouts in 646 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Pirates pitchers have walked 267 of 2,679 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 69 of 764 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 924 of 9,509 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 208 of 2,163 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (11 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.