- The Marlins (41-45) are -175 favorites vs the Pirates (38-50)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-8), 4.34 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (6-4), 2.90 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-175) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 38-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-43 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | O 7 -115 | +145 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -105 | -175 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 52.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 44-44 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -4.59% ROI).
- 38-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 4.11% ROI
- 36-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -14.52% ROI
- 46-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.35 Units / 6.5% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -3.86% ROI).
- 41-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -6.91% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -4.01% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 58% (244/422) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (218/422) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
JT Brubaker has allowed a slugging percentage of .870 (40 Total Bases / 46 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .577 — third Percentile.
JT Brubaker has walked 38 of 396 batters (10%) this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 (2 GB hits out of 44 GBs) against Pablo Lopez with runners on base this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (133/387) against Pablo Lopez this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (114/283) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 46% of the time (154/333) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Pirates are just 81-20 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 36-41 (.468) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are 11-3 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Marlins are just 4-30 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,844 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .663 (2,844 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 648 strikeouts in 2,352 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,352 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .619 (656 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .504 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 208 of 2,172 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 924 of 9,541 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 8.40 (45.0 IP) at home this month (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
The Pirates have allowed 1.65 runs per game (145/88) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 18% of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Marlins have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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