Pirates vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 13, 2022, 10:55 AM
  • The Marlins (41-45) are -175 favorites vs the Pirates (38-50)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-8), 4.34 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (6-4), 2.90 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-175) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 38-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-43 ATS.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -150O 7 -115+145
Marlins -1.5 +125U 7 -105-175

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 52.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kevin Newman has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Avisail Garcia 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
    Brian Anderson 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
    Garrett Cooper 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
    Jacob Stallings 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
    Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +400 0.5 -750

    Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Avisail Garcia 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
    Brian Anderson 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
    Garrett Cooper 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Jacob Stallings 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
    Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

    Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Avisail Garcia 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
    Brian Anderson 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
    Garrett Cooper 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
    Jacob Stallings 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
    Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +130 0.5 -190

    Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Pablo Lopez 5.5 -135 5.5 -105
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+8.60 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 44 away games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 39 away games (+4.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 games (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+1.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 44-44 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -4.59% ROI).

    • 38-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 4.11% ROI
    • 36-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -14.52% ROI
    • 46-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.35 Units / 6.5% ROI

    Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-43 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -3.86% ROI).

    • 41-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -6.91% ROI
    • 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -3.79% ROI
    • 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -4.01% ROI

    JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 58% (244/422) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

    Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (218/422) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

    JT Brubaker has allowed a slugging percentage of .870 (40 Total Bases / 46 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .577 — third Percentile.

    JT Brubaker has walked 38 of 396 batters (10%) this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.

    Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .045 (2 GB hits out of 44 GBs) against Pablo Lopez with runners on base this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (133/387) against Pablo Lopez this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.

    Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (114/283) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

    Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 46% of the time (154/333) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

    Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

    The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

    The Pirates are just 81-20 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

    The Pirates are just 36-41 (.468) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

    The Pirates are 11-3 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

    Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

    The Marlins are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

    The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

    The Marlins are just 4-30 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

    The Marlins are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

    The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

    Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,844 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

    Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .663 (2,844 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

    The Pirates are batting just .147 with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

    Marlins hitters have 648 strikeouts in 2,352 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,352 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

    Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .619 (656 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

    Marlins hitters are slugging just .504 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

    Pirates pitchers have walked 208 of 2,172 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Pirates pitchers have walked 924 of 9,541 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 8.40 (45.0 IP) at home this month (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.

    The Pirates have allowed 1.65 runs per game (145/88) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

    The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 18% of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    The Marlins have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

    Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.