Pirates vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (57-30) are favorites vs the (57-30)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson (3-6), 4.38 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (1-3), 4.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in Miami.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 38-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 43-44 ATS.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates O
Marlins U

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 52.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Diego Castillo has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+6.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 55% ROI)

Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Brian Anderson 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jon Berti 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Miguel Rojas 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Brian Anderson 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Miguel Rojas 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Diego Castillo 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Brian Anderson 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Jon Berti 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Miguel Rojas 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Braxton Garrett 4.5 -135 4.5 -105
Zach Thompson 3.5 -125 3.5 -110
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 80 games (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 45 away games (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 40 away games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 45-44 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -3.63% ROI).

  • 38-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 3% ROI
  • 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -13.33% ROI
  • 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 5.32% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -4.69% ROI).

  • 42-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -5.85% ROI
  • 42-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.7% ROI
  • 41-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -5.11% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (13/106) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 11st — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 10.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (5/40) against Zach Thompson with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Zach Thompson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 38% (11/29) of opposing batters this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .048 (1-for-21) against Braxton Garrett with two-strikes — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .147 — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .159 (7-for-44) against Braxton Garrett — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .231 — 90th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has allowed a slugging percentage of just .048 (1 Total Bases / 21 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 94th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has allowed an OBP of just .196 (46 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 92nd Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Pirates are just 81-21 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Pirates are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Marlins are just 2-36 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Marlins are just 15-41 (.268) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.

The Marlins are just 4-30 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Marlins are just 9-136 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .290 (3,228 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .302 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Marlins hitters have 648 strikeouts in 2,352 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,352 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .619 (656 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .503 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Pirates pitchers have walked 928 of 9,582 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 8.40 (45.0 IP) at home this month (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.79.

Pirates pitchers have walked 208 of 2,182 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 69 of 783 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Marlins pitchers this month (13 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Miguel Rojas (Marlins): Tooth, Day-to-Day
  • Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Personal, Day-to-Day
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.