- The Marlins are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-160) on Thursday, June 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 36-39 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 7 -105 | +135 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | U 7 -115 | -160 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 62.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.00 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+14.90 Units / 84% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+13.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 +100 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 33 away games (+3.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 64 games (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 games (+12.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 42 games (+8.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games (+6.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-39 against the Run Line (-14.05 Units / -14.45% ROI).
- 34-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.48% ROI
- 35-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -2.98% ROI
- 34-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -5.18% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 36-39 against the Run Line (-11.8 Units / -11.77% ROI).
- 42-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 10.62% ROI
- 34-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.75 Units / -10.59% ROI
- 39-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 2.12% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .140 (6-for-43) against Mitch Keller on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (20/122) against Mitch Keller this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .163 (7 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 98th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 28% (108 SO in 382 PAs) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 88th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 44% (44/99) against Braxton Garrett with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 12% of batters they faced (34/290 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has averaged 89.3 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has a strikeout rate of 61% (17 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 9-108 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Pirates are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Pirates are just 16-24 (.400) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Pirates are 16-3 (.842) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 5-29 (.147) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 77-18 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Marlins are just 10-53 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are 11-107 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .668 (5,928 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Pirates are batting just .224 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (8,596 PA’s) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (5,928 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,641 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have grounded into 82 double plays in 539 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 960 strikeouts in 3,641 PA’s (26%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 852 of 9,029 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,458 of 15,169 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 51 of 466 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Marlins pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jean Segura (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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