- The Marlins are -210 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-210) on Friday, June 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 34-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-39 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -120 | O 7.5 -110 | +170 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +100 | U 7.5 -110 | -210 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 76.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+14.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+13.90 Units / 74% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+12.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Luis Ortiz | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 46 games (+19.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 34 away games (+4.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+7.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-40 against the Run Line (-15.6 Units / -15.8% ROI).
- 34-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -4.62% ROI
- 36-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -1.72% ROI
- 34-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.35 Units / -6.58% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 37-39 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -10.32% ROI).
- 43-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 11.5% ROI
- 35-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -9.26% ROI
- 39-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.66% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has located his fastballs down 48% of the time (162/337) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has thrown low pitches 71% of the time (151/214) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 9 of 45 left-handed batters (20%) over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
24 of Luis Ortiz’s 26 strikeouts (92%) have come on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .444 (48 Total Bases / 108 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .222 (41-for-185) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — seventh Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of .671 (202 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .495 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 36% (67/184) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 16th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 9-108 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 4-115 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Pirates are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 5-29 (.147) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 30-22 (.577) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Marlins are just 11-53 (.172) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are just 8-8 (.500) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .368 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,701 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .655 (1,945 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,945 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,641 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 853 of 9,064 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 61 of 650 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,459 of 15,204 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have not walked any of the 63 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jean Segura (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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