- The Marlins are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Sunday, June 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Pirates vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 35-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-41 ATS.
Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 7 -115 | +140 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | U 7 -105 | -165 |
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 73.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+15.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+14.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+13.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+12.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 56% ROI)
Marlins vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -115 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -550 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Johan Oviedo | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Eury Perez | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 48 games (+19.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 away games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 36 away games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 36-40 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -13.42% ROI).
- 35-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -3.59% ROI
- 36-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -4.24% ROI
- 36-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -4.01% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 37-41 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -12.06% ROI).
- 44-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 9.82% ROI
- 35-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -11.54% ROI
- 41-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 2.97% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has walked 23 of 134 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (158/685) against Johan Oviedo this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown breaking pitches 61% of the time (208/338) when behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 53% (108/204) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez has allowed an OPS of just .346 (41 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .698 — 100th Percentile.
Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .111 (7 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .308 — 100th Percentile.
Eury Perez has pitched 15.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Scott McGough has the longest active streak at 21.0.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (27-for-148) against Eury Perez this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Pirates are just 72-15 (.828) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 5-116 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Pirates are just 37-44 (.457) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Pirates are just 7-12 (.368) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Marlins are 5-29 (.147) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are 8-24 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Marlins are just 78-19 (.804) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,745 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have grounded into 86 double plays in 563 opportunities (15%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,643 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 960 strikeouts in 3,643 PA’s (26%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 62 of 670 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 858 of 9,144 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jean Segura (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): Back, D10
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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