- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Watch the game on SNY
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Pirates vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 53-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 45-73 ATS.
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 +100 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -120 | -145 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+12.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 50 games (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| David Peterson | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+16.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+6.34 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.24 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+6.98 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+5.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 58-60 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -10.4% ROI).
- 53-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 1.2% ROI
- 62-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.5 Units / 5.84% ROI
- 50-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.95 Units / -13.9% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-73 against the Run Line (-38.45 Units / -25.61% ROI).
- 53-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.3 Units / -19.47% ROI
- 49-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.85 Units / -16.95% ROI
- 64-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.85 Units / 7.66% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (355/810) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1951.9 RPM on fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 2233.2 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (72/420) against Bailey Falter this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .283 (117-for-414) against Bailey Falter since last season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 11th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,403/2,352) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (235/453) of right-handed hitters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (55/155) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .451 (32-for-71) against David Peterson on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 94-53 (.639) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Pirates are just 30-38 (.441) after a home win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Pirates are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 37-18 (.673) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Mets are 136-1 (.993) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Mets are just 5-31 (.139) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .227 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Pirates are batting just .220 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (7,440 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have just 1,504 strikeouts in 7,440 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have scored first in just 34% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Mets have scored first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,017 of 10,828 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,623 of 16,968 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 85 times since last season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Mets pitchers have walked 438 of 4,498 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): Back, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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