- The – are favorites vs the –
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Watch the game on SNY
The Pittsburgh Pirates () visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets () on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Pirates vs Mets Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 54-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 45-74 ATS.
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | O | ||
| Mets | U |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 56.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 away games (+10.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+11.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 49 games (+10.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+9.45 Units / 12% ROI)
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alika Williams | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+15.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 23 games (+6.34 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.24 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 away games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+7.98 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+4.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 59-60 against the Run Line (-15.05 Units / -9.65% ROI).
- 54-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 2.08% ROI
- 63-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 6.57% ROI
- 50-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.05 Units / -14.63% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 45-74 against the Run Line (-39.45 Units / -26.1% ROI).
- 53-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.65 Units / -20.14% ROI
- 50-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -16.04% ROI
- 64-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.75 Units / 6.75% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (326/590) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Opponents batted just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander in 2022 — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .400 (20-for-50) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (146/277) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .433 (141 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .325 — first Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .486 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Pirates are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 95-53 (.642) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Pirates are just 47-53 (.470) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 5-31 (.139) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets are just 22-18 (.550) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .689.
The Mets are 136-1 (.993) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 2-55 (.035) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .668 (3,228 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Pirates are batting just .230 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in just 34% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Mets are just 44-70 (.367) against the run line (-20.8% ROI) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Mets hitters have chased just 19% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 666 strikeouts in 3,246 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,020 of 10,863 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,626 of 17,003 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers this season traveled 454.0 feet — — 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 464.7
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Mark Vientos (Mets): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Palacios (Pirates): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Dauri Moreta (Pirates): Back, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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