- The Mets (90-55) are -250 favorites vs the Pirates (55-89)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (5-10), 4.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (11-4), 3.47 ERA
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+200) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-250) on Friday, September 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Pirates vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are ATS.
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +100 | O 7.5 -110 | +200 |
| Mets | -1.5 -120 | U 7.5 -110 | -250 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Friday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+8.55 Units / 69% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 41 games at home (+19.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games at home (+16.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 63 games (+13.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 55 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeff McNeil | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -120 |
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 70 away games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 67 games at home (+20.62 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+4.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 67 games at home (+0.85 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .409 (184-for-450) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .289 (127-for-439) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .222 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (403 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 15% (7/48) against Mitch Keller on the first pitch of at-bats — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker allowed a batting average of just .160 vs right-handed batters (eighth best)– 88th Percentile and .350 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fourth worst among qualified SPs)– eighth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 56% (236/425) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (121/534) against Taijuan Walker on sliders since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 33% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 116 of Taijuan Walker’s 520 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 28-43 (.394) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Pirates are just 39-196 (.166) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are 47-26 (.644) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Mets are just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 32-7 (.821) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Mets are 45-6 (.882) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .447 (5,903 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Pirates are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,690 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (3,822 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .758 (2,833 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,118 of 11,666 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 512 of 5,526 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 234 of 2,659 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have allowed 1.65 runs per game (236/143) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 76 of 1,292 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, Day-to-Day
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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