Pirates vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 18

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (92-55) are -450 favorites vs the Pirates (55-91)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo (3-2), 3.34 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (5-2), 2.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+340) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-450) on Sunday, September 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-125).

The Pirates vs Mets Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are ATS.

Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+2.5 -105O 6.5 +100+340
Mets -2.5 -125U 6.5 -120-450

Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 69.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+12.15 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+8.80 Units / 61% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games at home (+19.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 39 games at home (+16.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 65 games (+15.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 57 games (+14.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)

Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Jeff McNeil 1.5 +190 1.5 -275

Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jacob deGrom 10.5 -135 10.5 -105
Johan Oviedo 3.5 +145 3.5 -200
Johan Oviedo 2.5 -165 2.5 +120
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 72 away games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 41 away games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 away games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 69 games at home (+22.62 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+4.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 69 games at home (+2.85 Units / 2% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Johan Oviedo has walked 6 of 30 right-handed batters (20%) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 0 Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has walked 10 of 43 batters (23%) this month (3 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.2 innings pitched — Brayan Bello has the longest active streak at 25.1.

Johan Oviedo has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (20/43) this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .190 (767 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 42% (323 SO in 768 PAs) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 43% (279/655) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .154 (112-for-728) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 182 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Pirates are just 17-79 (.177) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 46-8 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Pirates are just 2-74 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Mets are just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 81-3 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 68-5 (.932) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Mets are 40-9 (.816) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .657 (3,443 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .218 (5,940 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .337 (3,887 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Mets have been successful on 60% of their hit & run attempts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (5,590 PA’s) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,378 of 13,968 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,129 of 11,741 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 55 of 535 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have walked 77 of 1,309 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.