- The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Nationals starting pitcher: Chad Kuhl
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+120) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 18-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 15-9 ATS.
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | + + | O + | -140 |
| Nationals | + + | U + | +120 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 48.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.40 Units / 63% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Chad Kuhl | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+15.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 23 games (+15.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+13.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.40 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 103% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.35 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 17-9 against the Run Line (+7.1 Units / 20.52% ROI).
- 18-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 49.91% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -6.84% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.52% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 15-9 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 21.86% ROI).
- 9-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 5.42% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -11.11% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 4.11% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
7 of Rich Hill’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 66% of the time (89/135) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 86.9 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 57% of the time (59/103) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chad Kuhl has an ERA of 7.88 (64.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 3.91 — second Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has a strike rate of just 53% (139/261) in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has a strike rate of just 55% (200/362) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has thrown his fastball for a strike just 56% (671/1,196) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are 17-6 (.739) as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .604.
The Pirates are 7-6 (.538) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 16-2 (.889) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 114-13 (.898) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 28-64 (.304) at home since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 64-104 (.381) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 20-106 (.159) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,139 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Pirates are batting just .148 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates are batting just .218 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 170 strikeouts in 920 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .321 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 31 extra-base hits out of 130 total hits (just 24%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 677 of 7,223 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (115.2 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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