- The Pirates are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Sunday, April 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 20-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 15-11 ATS.
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -105 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -115 | +135 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+8.70 Units / 73% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 55% ROI)
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Robles | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Robles | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Luis Garcia | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Robles | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 25 games (+15.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+14.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+11.55 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.75 Units / 54% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 19-9 against the Run Line (+9.25 Units / 25.27% ROI).
- 20-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.3 Units / 51.66% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.95 Units / -3.1% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -3.23% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 15-11 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 11.66% ROI).
- 9-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -2.69% ROI
- 11-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 12-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.17% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (35/108) against Johan Oviedo this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 87th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (18/140) against Johan Oviedo on breaking pitches since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike 72% (218/301) of the time this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (21/32) against Johan Oviedo in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 50% (58/116) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 60% (289/481) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 6 of 31 batters (19%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (10/80) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are 19-6 (.760) when favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .606.
The Pirates are 18-1 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 4-85 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Pirates are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 114-13 (.898) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 20-108 (.156) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Nationals are just 28-66 (.298) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 0-114 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of .337 (246 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (3,909 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging .339 with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 184 strikeouts in 991 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.67 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.93.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .356 (310 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 678 of 7,294 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.83 (133.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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