• The Nationals are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
• Pirates vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Pirates / Nationals TV Channel: SNPT | NATV

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-150) on July 3, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 pm in Washington, DC.

This season, the Pirates are 44-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 54-32 ATS.

Pirates vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 6-5, 4.87 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Foster Griffin 8-2, 2.93 ERA

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Endy Rodriguez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+17.70 Units / 177% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 49% ROI)
• Henry Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jorbit Vivas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+23.50 Units / 588% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Nasim Nunez has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jose Tena has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+4.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 50 games (+19.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+17.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+16.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 43-43 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -0.79% ROI).

• 44-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.7 Units / -7.79% ROI
• 50-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.6 Units / 11.97% ROI
• 35-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.8 Units / -20.47% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 54-32 against the Run Line (+13.85 Units / 11.25% ROI).

• 45-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.7 Units / 13.89% ROI
• 52-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +17.2 Units / 17.79% ROI
• 32-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.05 Units / -25.84% ROI

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 2-22 (.083) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Pirates are just 18-25 (.419) after a win this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Pirates are 35-8 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Pirates are just 9-65 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals are just 17-25 (.405) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Nationals are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Nationals are just 35-11 (.761) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .861.

The Nationals are 39-8 (.830) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .309 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .350 (2,519 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .373 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .355 (1,756 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (406 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .426 this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,018 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .783 (1,018 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates have allowed 1.73 runs per game (152/88) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (385.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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