• The Nationals are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
• Pirates vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Pirates / Nationals TV Channel: PEAC | NBCX

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-135) on July 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Washington, D.C., DC.

This season, the Pirates are 45-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 55-33 ATS.

Pirates vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Bubba Chandler 3-8, 4.61 ERA
• Nationals starting pitcher: Cade Cavalli 5-4, 3.69 ERA

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Pirates vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Konnor Griffin has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.55 Units / 56% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jake Mangum has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Konnor Griffin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+26.50 Units / 294% ROI)
• Dylan Crews has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jose Tena has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Nasim Nunez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Nasim Nunez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+4.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.15 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 50 games (+17.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+16.80 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+15.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 44-44 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.4% ROI).

• 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.7 Units / -7.62% ROI
• 51-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.5 Units / 11.59% ROI
• 36-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.8 Units / -20.03% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 55-33 against the Run Line (+14.2 Units / 11.34% ROI).

• 46-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.7 Units / 13.53% ROI
• 53-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +17.1 Units / 17.27% ROI
• 33-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.05 Units / -25.29% ROI

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Pirates are just 18-26 (.409) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Pirates are 36-8 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Pirates are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals are just 36-11 (.766) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .861.

The Nationals are just 1-34 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.

The Nationals are just 18-26 (.409) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.

The Nationals are 39-8 (.830) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

The Pirates are batting .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — highest in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .806 (1,756 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

The Pirates have scored in at least three different innings in 59% of their games this season — highest in MLB.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (418 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters are slugging .435 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Nationals are batting just .204 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .269 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

The Nationals have allowed 6.02 runs per game (265/44) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.34 (403.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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