- The Nationals (27-48) are -150 favorites vs the Pirates (29-43)
- Pirates starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-5), 4.45 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-150) on Monday, June 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 29-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 32-43 ATS.
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 9.5 -120 | +125 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +130 | U 9.5 +100 | -150 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Chavis has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.25 Units / 85% ROI)
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Hoy Park | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Hoy Park | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Hoy Park | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+10.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 63 games (+5.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 29 away games (+2.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-39 against the Run Line (-10.35 Units / -11.6% ROI).
- 29-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -3.67% ROI
- 30-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -11.58% ROI
- 36-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 3.37% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-43 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -19.37% ROI).
- 27-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -15.05% ROI
- 39-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 3.12% ROI
- 33-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -11.51% ROI
–: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jerad Eickhoff has limited playing time.
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde has walked 18 of 157 right-handed batters (12%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Erick Fedde has allowed an OBP of .363 (157 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (100/538) against Erick Fedde this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (411/676) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Pirates are just 74-19 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 24-3 (.889) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Pirates are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 6-44 (.120) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Nationals are just 15-22 (.405) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Nationals are just 2-44 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .227 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .452 (4,511 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Pirates are batting just .220 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 541 strikeouts in 2,734 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 650 strikeouts in 3,324 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals have grounded 226 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.
Nationals hitters have just 542 strikeouts in 2,806 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 195 of 2,032 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 870 of 8,916 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 254 of 2,548 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 264 of 2,776 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .314 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
- Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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