Pirates vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 27, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Nationals (27-48) are -150 favorites vs the Pirates (29-43)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-5), 4.45 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-150) on Monday, June 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).

The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 29-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 32-43 ATS.

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -155O 9.5 -120+125
Nationals -1.5 +130U 9.5 +100-150

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Chavis has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.95 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.25 Units / 85% ROI)

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Hoy Park 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Hoy Park 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bligh Madris 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Hoy Park 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Erick Fedde 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+10.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 63 games (+5.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.60 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 29 away games (+2.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-39 against the Run Line (-10.35 Units / -11.6% ROI).

  • 29-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -3.67% ROI
  • 30-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -11.58% ROI
  • 36-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 3.37% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-43 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -19.37% ROI).

  • 27-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -15.05% ROI
  • 39-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 3.12% ROI
  • 33-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -11.51% ROI

Jerad Eickhoff has limited playing time.

Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Erick Fedde has walked 18 of 157 right-handed batters (12%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Erick Fedde has allowed an OBP of .363 (157 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (100/538) against Erick Fedde this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (411/676) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fourth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Pirates are just 74-19 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 24-3 (.889) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Pirates are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals are just 6-44 (.120) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Nationals are just 15-22 (.405) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Nationals are just 2-44 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .227 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .452 (4,511 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

The Pirates are batting just .220 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Nationals hitters have just 541 strikeouts in 2,734 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have just 650 strikeouts in 3,324 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals have grounded 226 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have just 542 strikeouts in 2,806 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 195 of 2,032 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 870 of 8,916 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 254 of 2,548 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 264 of 2,776 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .314 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.