- The Nationals (28-48) are -125 favorites vs the Pirates (29-44)
- Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-4), 3.60 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (3-10), 6.59 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-125) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 29-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 32-44 ATS.
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -105 | +105 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -125 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Diego Castillo has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+2.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 68% ROI)
Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 35 away games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 30 away games (+3.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-39 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -10.3% ROI).
- 29-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -4.92% ROI
- 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -12.8% ROI
- 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.55% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-44 against the Run Line (-19.1 Units / -20.22% ROI).
- 28-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -13.5% ROI
- 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 1.78% ROI
- 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -10.16% ROI
José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 19-86 (.181) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Pirates are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 7-44 (.137) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are just 100-21 (.826) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .452 (4,531 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 541 strikeouts in 2,734 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,601 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 31 strikeouts in 210 PA’s (15%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 196 of 2,040 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 255 of 2,556 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 268 of 2,813 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 57 of 557 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .311 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (312.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
- Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
- Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
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