Pirates vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Nationals (28-48) are -125 favorites vs the Pirates (29-44)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-4), 3.60 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (3-10), 6.59 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-125) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Pirates vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 29-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 32-44 ATS.

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -190O 8.5 -105+105
Nationals -1.5 +155U 8.5 -115-125

Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Diego Castillo has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+2.40 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 68% ROI)

Nationals vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Bell 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Juan Soto 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Lane Thomas 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Nelson Cruz 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +400 0.5 -800

Nationals vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Juan Soto 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Lane Thomas 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Nelson Cruz 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +160 1.5 -250
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Nationals vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Bell 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Juan Soto 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Lane Thomas 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Nelson Cruz 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Nationals vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Corbin 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 35 away games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 30 away games (+3.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.95 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-39 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -10.3% ROI).

  • 29-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -4.92% ROI
  • 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -12.8% ROI
  • 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.55% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-44 against the Run Line (-19.1 Units / -20.22% ROI).

  • 28-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -13.5% ROI
  • 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 1.78% ROI
  • 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -10.16% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 19-86 (.181) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Pirates are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals are just 7-44 (.137) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Nationals are just 100-21 (.826) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

The Pirates are batting just .207 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .452 (4,531 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Nationals hitters have just 541 strikeouts in 2,734 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,601 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have just 31 strikeouts in 210 PA’s (15%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 196 of 2,040 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 255 of 2,556 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 268 of 2,813 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 57 of 557 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .311 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (312.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.