- The Orioles are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-7), 4.36 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (3-3), 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-155) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 43-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 69-36 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -105 | +125 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -155 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s matchup with 70.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Chavis has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+17.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 26 games (+16.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Cedric Mullins | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+11.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 31 games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 46 away games (+3.20 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 85 games (+27.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 85 games (+25.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 55-50 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -1.06% ROI).
- 43-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.8 Units / -11.98% ROI
- 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 3.91% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 69-36 against the Run Line (+25.85 Units / 18.62% ROI).
- 54-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.4 Units / 19.58% ROI
- 49-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -5.76% ROI
- 52-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.49% ROI
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .421 (166-for-394) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
The average home run distance against Mitch Keller against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 385.7 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .408 (213 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .373 (902 PA’s) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 16th — the longest active streak is 6.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (11/21) against Dean Kremer against right-handed batters — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — ninth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 15-54 (.217) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Pirates are 14-3 (.824) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 24-6 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Orioles are just 25-112 (.182) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Orioles are 10-44 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Orioles are just 24-145 (.142) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (3,051 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,306 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .453 (5,182 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles hitters have 327 strikeouts in 1,282 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,328 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 970 of 10,207 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (1058.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Side, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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