Pirates vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Orioles are -155 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (3-7), 4.36 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (3-3), 3.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-155) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 43-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 69-36 ATS.

Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -155O 8.5 -105+125
Orioles -1.5 +125U 8.5 -115-155

Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s matchup with 70.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Orioles vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Michael Chavis has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+17.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 26 games (+16.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)

Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Anthony Santander 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +750 0.5 -2500
Ramon Urias 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Anthony Santander 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Cedric Mullins 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Jorge Mateo 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Ramon Urias 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Anthony Santander 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Ramon Urias 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dean Kremer 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
Mitch Keller 4.5 +110 4.5 -160
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+11.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 31 games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 46 away games (+3.20 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 85 games (+27.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 85 games (+25.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 55-50 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -1.06% ROI).

  • 43-62 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 45-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.8 Units / -11.98% ROI
  • 54-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 3.91% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 69-36 against the Run Line (+25.85 Units / 18.62% ROI).

  • 54-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.4 Units / 19.58% ROI
  • 49-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -5.76% ROI
  • 52-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.49% ROI

Opponents are hitting .421 (166-for-394) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

The average home run distance against Mitch Keller against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 385.7 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 399.3

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .408 (213 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .373 (902 PA’s) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.

Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dean Kremer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to July 16th — the longest active streak is 6.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (11/21) against Dean Kremer against right-handed batters — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — ninth Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Pirates are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 15-54 (.217) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Pirates are 14-3 (.824) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Orioles are 24-6 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Orioles are just 25-112 (.182) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Orioles are 10-44 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Orioles are just 24-145 (.142) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (3,051 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,306 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .453 (5,182 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Orioles hitters have 327 strikeouts in 1,282 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,328 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 970 of 10,207 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (1058.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Hays (Orioles): Side, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.