- The Orioles (55-51) are -165 favorites vs the Pirates (43-63)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-9), 4.39 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Austin Voth (1-1), 5.54 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-165) on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 5:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 43-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 69-37 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -110 | +135 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -110 | -165 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s matchup with 77.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games (+15.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Chavis has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jake Marisnick has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games at home (+16.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+11.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cedric Mullins | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Voth | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
| JT Brubaker | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+12.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 32 games (+4.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 47 away games (+4.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 86 games (+26.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 86 games (+26.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+8.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 56-50 against the Run Line (-0.4 Units / -0.3% ROI).
- 43-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.18% ROI
- 45-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -12.85% ROI
- 55-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 4.73% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 69-37 against the Run Line (+24.85 Units / 17.78% ROI).
- 55-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +22.4 Units / 20.2% ROI
- 49-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -6.7% ROI
- 53-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -0.63% ROI
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (545/1,036) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
JT Brubaker has located his fastball up for a strike just 50% (438/870) of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (295/870) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 49% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (261/499) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Austin Voth: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .224 (57-for-255) against Austin Voth with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .157 — first Percentile.
Austin Voth has allowed an OPS of .981 (139 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .629 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .352 (44-for-125) against Austin Voth versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 0 Percentile.
Austin Voth has allowed a slugging percentage of .357 (91 Total Bases / 255 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .246 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 15-55 (.214) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 5-23 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are just 8-9 (.471) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 6-43 (.122) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Orioles are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Orioles are 10-44 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Orioles are just 13-24 (.351) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .658 (3,057 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .454 (5,200 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .282 (1,312 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have 329 strikeouts in 1,288 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 43% at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles hitters have drawn 248 walks in 3,359 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,336 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 274 of 2,852 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 3 of 109 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (1058.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Orioles have allowed 0.94 runs per game (99/105) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.27.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Side, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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