- The Orioles (56-51) are -185 favorites vs the Pirates (43-64)
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-6), 6.19 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Spenser Watkins (4-1), 3.79 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-185) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Pirates are 43-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 70-37 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -115 | +150 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -105 | -185 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s matchup with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+8.10 Units / 119% ROI)
- Michael Chavis has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 28 games (+18.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games at home (+15.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+13.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+10.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Cedric Mullins | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spenser Watkins | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -130 |
| Bryse Wilson | 3.5 +140 | 3.5 -200 |
| Bryse Wilson | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 98 games (+6.85 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.45 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 66 games (+2.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 87 games (+27.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 87 games (+27.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+11.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+9.25 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 56-51 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -1.33% ROI).
- 43-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -1.08% ROI
- 46-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 55-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 3.67% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 70-37 against the Run Line (+26.05 Units / 18.5% ROI).
- 56-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.4 Units / 20.79% ROI
- 50-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 53-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.63% ROI
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed a BABIP of .417 vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .575 (149 Total Bases / 259 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .394 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 80% (12/15) against Bryse Wilson vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 37% — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .324 (84-for-259) against Bryse Wilson since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.
Spenser Watkins: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
18 of Spenser Watkins’ 40 strikeouts (45%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .366 (34-for-93) against Spenser Watkins versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .257 — second Percentile.
Spenser Watkins has allowed a slugging percentage of .624 (58 Total Bases / 93 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .438 — second Percentile.
Spenser Watkins has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 37-5 (.881) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Pirates are just 8-9 (.471) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 24-29 (.453) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 26-6 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Orioles are 40-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Orioles are just 26-74 (.260) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .354.
The Orioles are just 13-24 (.351) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,064 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .644 (3,072 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 216 of 2,344 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (1058.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Oblique, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
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