Pirates vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Orioles (56-51) are -185 favorites vs the Pirates (43-64)
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (1-6), 6.19 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Spenser Watkins (4-1), 3.79 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-185) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Pirates are 43-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 70-37 ATS.

Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -130O 9 -115+150
Orioles -1.5 +105U 9 -105-185

Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s matchup with 64.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Orioles vs Pirates and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Tucupita Marcano has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+8.10 Units / 119% ROI)
  • Michael Chavis has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 28 games (+18.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games at home (+15.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+13.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+10.25 Units / 13% ROI)

Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Anthony Santander 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Brett Phillips 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Brett Phillips 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Cedric Mullins 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Jorge Mateo 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Rougned Odor 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Anthony Santander 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Brett Phillips 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jorge Mateo 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spenser Watkins 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
Bryse Wilson 3.5 +140 3.5 -200
Bryse Wilson 2.5 -160 2.5 +115
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 98 games (+6.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.45 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 66 games (+2.35 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 60 of their last 87 games (+27.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 87 games (+27.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 84 games (+11.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+9.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 56-51 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -1.33% ROI).

  • 43-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -1.08% ROI
  • 46-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • 55-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 3.67% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 70-37 against the Run Line (+26.05 Units / 18.5% ROI).

  • 56-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.4 Units / 20.79% ROI
  • 50-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -5.78% ROI
  • 53-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.63% ROI

Bryse Wilson has allowed a BABIP of .417 vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 0 Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .575 (149 Total Bases / 259 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .394 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 80% (12/15) against Bryse Wilson vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 37% — first Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .324 (84-for-259) against Bryse Wilson since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.

Spenser Watkins: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

18 of Spenser Watkins’ 40 strikeouts (45%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .366 (34-for-93) against Spenser Watkins versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .257 — second Percentile.

Spenser Watkins has allowed a slugging percentage of .624 (58 Total Bases / 93 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .438 — second Percentile.

Spenser Watkins has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 37-5 (.881) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Pirates are just 8-9 (.471) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 24-29 (.453) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Orioles are 26-6 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Orioles are 40-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Orioles are just 26-74 (.260) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .354.

The Orioles are just 13-24 (.351) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,064 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .363 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .644 (3,072 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 216 of 2,344 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.91 (1058.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Hays (Orioles): Oblique, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.