Pirates vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 13

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 13, 2023, 9:04 AM
  • The Orioles are -175 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells
  • Watch the game on MASN2

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-175) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Pirates are 21-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 24-14 ATS.

Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -140O 8.5 -110+145
Orioles -1.5 +115U 8.5 -110-175

Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+8.55 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+8.20 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in their last 11 games (+11.20 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+9.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 55% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 21-18 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.7% ROI).

  • 21-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 12.71% ROI
  • 18-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -3.73% ROI
  • 18-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -3.38% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 24-14 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 20.71% ROI).

  • 25-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.8 Units / 20.93% ROI
  • 20-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 6.6% ROI
  • 16-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -13.76% ROI

Roansy Contreras has a strikeout rate of just 3% (1 SO in 33 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has struck out just 9% (6/70) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has walked 13 of 96 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.

Roansy Contreras has walked 19 of 166 batters (11%) this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 11th Percentile.

Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

starting pitcher – home

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Pirates are just 0-14 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.

The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 4-95 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.

The Pirates are 18-1 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .852.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

keys to the game – home

The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .190 on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

team hitters – home

Pirates pitchers have walked 725 of 7,714 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 9 of 53 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

team pitchers – home

Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
  • Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
  • Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
  • Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
  • William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.