- The Pirates are -105 favorites vs the Orioles
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-115) on Sunday, May 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Pirates vs Orioles Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 21-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 25-14 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -115 | -105 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -105 | -115 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Orioles vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Orioles vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Orioles vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in their last 12 games (+12.20 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+11.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+8.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.25 Units / 59% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 21-19 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -1.95% ROI).
- 21-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 10.25% ROI
- 18-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -6.03% ROI
- 19-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -1.02% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 25-14 against the Run Line (+10.8 Units / 22.69% ROI).
- 26-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.8 Units / 22.14% ROI
- 20-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 3.98% ROI
- 17-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -11.09% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 43% (19 SO in 44 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
66% of Mitch Keller’s strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has struck out 29% (30/102) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 87th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 69% (541/781) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .449 (22-for-49) against Kyle Gibson when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .344 (32-for-93) against Kyle Gibson this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — ninth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OPS of .993 (102 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .710 — ninth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 16% (31 SO in 195 PAs) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Pirates are 19-1 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .891.
The Pirates are just 4-96 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Pirates are 18-1 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .852.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 26-13 (.667) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 78-4 (.951) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Orioles are 22-13 (.629) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Orioles are 8-9 (.471) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .222 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Pirates are batting just .189 on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .809 (531 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Orioles hitters are slugging .454 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
12% of Orioles’ plate appearances have been three-ball counts (619/5,298 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles are batting just .155 with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 15 of 102 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 726 of 7,745 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .130 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have have still managed to win 61% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 212 of 3,194 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ramón UrÃas (Orioles): Hamstring, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
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