• The Pirates are +105 favorites vs the Padres
• Pirates vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Pirates / Padres TV Channel: PDTV | SNPT

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on August 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Pirates are 64-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 72-57 ATS.

Pirates vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 9-11, 3.98 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 8-9, 3.39 ERA

Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jacob Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+9.90 Units / 165% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games at home (+20.00 Units / 222% ROI)
• Freddy Fermin has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• Freddy Fermin has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Michael King has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.45 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.90 Units / 7% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games at home (+12.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 63-66 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -5.35% ROI).

• 64-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.1 Units / -9.24% ROI
• 72-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.6 Units / 6.56% ROI
• 57-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.9 Units / -14.97% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 72-57 against the Run Line (+11.55 Units / 6.62% ROI).

• 71-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 3.74% ROI
• 58-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -19 Units / -13.04% ROI
• 70-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 4.56% ROI

Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Pirates are just 5-34 (.128) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 26-37 (.413) after a win this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 12-77 (.135) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Pirates are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Padres are 22-16 (.579) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Pirates (23rd fewest runs allowed).

The Padres are 58-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Padres are 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

The Padres are 8-55 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .341 (3,559 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .348 (2,548 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP this season — highest in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .279 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting .363 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Padres hitters have grounded into 108 double plays in 876 opportunities (12%) this season — highest in MLB.

The Padres have grounded into 108 double plays this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging .600 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Pirates have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.45 (605.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 237 times this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (615.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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