- The Padres are -275 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Charles Priester
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-275) on Monday, July 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Pirates vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 43-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 49-51 ATS.
Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -115 | +220 |
| Padres | -1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -105 | -275 |
Pirates vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 84.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+11.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Padres vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Padres vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +120 |
| Quinn Priester | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 71 games (+16.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+8.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 90 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 93 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 46 games (+9.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+7.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 45-54 against the Run Line (-23.2 Units / -17.58% ROI).
- 43-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -5.89% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 3.67% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -11.58% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 49-51 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -4.51% ROI).
- 48-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.6 Units / -16.24% ROI
- 40-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -16.35% ROI
- 52-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.65 Units / 7.96% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 57% (12/21) against Quinn Priester — 8th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — 93rd Percentile.
Quinn Priester has a strikeout rate of just 8% (2 SO in 25 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Quinn Priester struck out just 5% (1/20) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Quinn Priester has allowed an OPS of 1.056 (25 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — 5th highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: .757 — 11th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has struck out 48% (10/21) of left-handed batters he faced — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (9/79) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .175 (93-for-532) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 50% of the time (169/340) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Pirates are just 8-15 (.348) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 6-129 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Pirates are just 18-104 (.148) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Pirates are just 13-121 (.097) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-41 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Padres are 27-42 (.391) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 6-18 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .673 (3,007 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 98 walks in 889 PA’s (11%) when leading off an inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 310 walks in 2,702 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .199 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 935 of 10,029 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.19 (80.0 IP) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.54.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,385 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): July, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
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